Compute the probability of jerseys sales quantities


Assignment:

Q: In the next week, Ryan Ltd. will sell cashmere jerseys during the local market in Madeira (OH). Ryan will sell the jerseys at $80. Suppose the following table shows the probability of jerseys sales quantities.

Probability

0.05

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.15

Demand

100

200

300

400

500

600

The manufacturer of the jerseys, Scott Ltd., sells the jerseys at $40 each. Based on the contract, Scott will buy back any left over. The buy-back price is still negotiable. Scott has calculated that his optimal production order size is 400 units, therefore he would like to set the buy-back price so that Ryan orders exactly 400 units.

1. Compute the buy-back price b such that Ryan orders 400 units.

 

Since Scott will buy back any leftover, the salvage value for Ryan is the buy-back price. You do not know the buy-back price (b), therefore Ryan's critical ratio is a function of b.

 

You need to solve the exercise the other way around: Ryan will order 400 units if his Critical Ratio will be in a certain range of values...: what range of values is it? Find it. Once you know the range (e.g. 100 < Critical Ratio <= 200), solve the 2 inequalities for b to find the range of values for b.

 

 

2. The unit production cost of Scott (the Manufacturer) is $20. What buy-back price should the supply chain partners choose in order to maximize the whole supply chain profit (= coordinated supply chain)?

 

 

When you consider the whole supply chain, the transfer of money between the two actors (buy-back price; purchasing cost) is ignored. Therefore, the relevant financial flows are: the price that Ryan gets from the sale and the cost that Scott pays for manufacturing the jerseys. Notice that the salvage value is zero here.

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Basic Statistics: Compute the probability of jerseys sales quantities
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