Assignment:
Q: Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows:
| Month |
Sales |
Forecast 1 |
Forecast 2 |
| 1 |
845 |
775 |
805 |
| 2 |
835 |
805 |
815 |
| 3 |
820 |
795 |
790 |
| 4 |
835 |
800 |
800 |
| 5 |
770 |
820 |
780 |
| 6 |
845 |
795 |
786 |
| 7 |
775 |
765 |
795 |
| 8 |
830 |
830 |
835 |
| 9 |
790 |
815 |
820 |
| 10 |
855 |
810 |
810 |
a. Compute the MSE and MAD for each forecast.
b. Compute MAPE for each forecast.
c. Prepare a naive forecast for periods 2 through 11 using the given sales data. Compute each of the following;
(1) MSE, (2) MAD, (3) tracking signal at month 10, and (4) 2s control limits.