The Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry has been asked by several of its members to prepare a forecast of the French index of industrial production for its monthly newsletter. Using the monthly data given below:
(a) Compute a forecast using the method of moving averages with 12 observations in each average.
(b) Compute the error in each forecast. How accurate would you say these forecasts are?
(c) Now compute a new series of moving average forecasts using six observations in each average. Compute the errors as well.
(d) How do these two moving average forecasts compare?
|
Period
|
French index of industrial prod.
|
Period
|
French index of industrial prod.
|
|
1
|
108
|
15
|
98
|
|
2
|
108
|
16
|
97
|
|
3
|
110
|
17
|
101
|
|
4
|
106
|
18
|
104
|
|
5
|
108
|
19
|
101
|
|
6
|
108
|
20
|
99
|
|
7
|
105
|
21
|
95
|
|
8
|
100
|
22
|
95
|
|
9
|
97
|
23
|
96
|
|
10
|
95
|
24
|
96
|
|
11
|
95
|
25
|
97
|
|
12
|
92
|
26
|
98
|
|
13
|
95
|
27
|
94
|
|
14
|
95
|
28
|
92
|