Forecasts and actual sales of MP3 players at Just Say Music are as follows:
Month Forecast Actual Sales
March 150 170
April 220 229
May 205 192
June 256 241
July 250 238
August 260 210
September 270 225
October 280 179
Plot the data and provide insights about the time series. (Use Microsoft Excel and attach the time series graph)
What is the forecast for November, using a two-period moving average?
What is the forecast for November, using a three-period moving average?
Compute mean square error (MSE) for the two- and three-period moving average models and compare your results.
Find the single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE for Alpha 0.5. How does this model compare with the best moving average model found in 2d?