Assignment:
Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows:
|
|
PREDICTED DEMAND
|
| Period |
Demand |
F1 |
F2 |
| 1 |
68 |
63 |
62 |
| 2 |
75 |
66 |
61 |
| 3 |
70 |
73 |
70 |
| 4 |
74 |
65 |
71 |
| 5 |
69 |
71 |
73 |
| 6 |
72 |
69 |
73 |
| 7 |
80 |
70 |
76 |
| 8 |
78 |
72 |
80 |
|
a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate?
b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate?
c. In practice, either MAD or MSE would be employed to compute forecast errors. What factors might lead a manager to choose one rather than the other?
Either one might already be in use, familiar to users, and have past values for comparison. If (Click to select)control chartstracking signals are used, MSE would be natural; if (Click to select)control chartstracking signals are used, MAD would be more natural.
d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?