Problem: Forecast Analysis
The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000 seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey team and that host a variety of concerts, trade shows and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened:
Year Occupancy Rate
1 83
2 78
3 75
4 81
5 86
6 85
7 89
8 90
9 86
Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with a =.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20 and B =.20 and a linear forecast. Compare the three forecast, using MAD and average error (E) and indicate which seem to be most accurate.