Assignment: Risk Analysis, Real Options, & Capital Budgeting
• Real Options
o JTM Airlines is looking at buying more gates at their home airport. JTM's discount rate is 5.5% and the risk free rate is 2.0%. What is the NPV of the gate purchases if it bought them today? Use the data in the Excel template provided.
o After you run the numbers for part A, you remember back to the concept of real options, which means that JTM can make investment decisions as time passes:
• Present valuing the purchase price of the gates (that is, the years 1 and 2 Capital Expenditures) separately using the risk-free rate. Once JTM decides to go ahead with the purchase, there is no risk to that expenditure.
• Present valuing the Net Cash Flow excluding those purchase prices. This calculation will include Cap. Ex. for years 3-15 as they are part of the normal operation of the gates and are unrelated to the purchase price.
• Use the Black-Scholes Option Pricing formula to come up with option's price assuming a 2-year maturity and a 15% price volatility for gate prices.
• Compare the price of the call option with the NPV in the No Real Options scenario. Is the option worth it?
• Decision Tree
• JTM really liked your work on the option pricing of the gates, so they ask you to look at their 3- phase expansion at their home airport. The three phases are:
o Upon purchase of the new gates, start a marketing program to promote JTM's routes to the East Coast, West Coast, and the Caribbean. If all goes well and the market is receptive, they will go on to phase 2.
o Phase 2 has JTM invest in new routes to the destinations listed. If at any time, JTM finds that this is not going to work, they will pull the plug on everything.
o Phase 3 has JTM start the new routes to the destinations listed. If things don't go well on any of the three destinations, they will pull the plug on everything.
After much work with other departments, you generate enough data to calculate the NPV of the 3-phase expansion. Before you have a chance to save all your work, there is a power spike and you lose part of your work. You have to complete it for a presentation. Please use the Excel template provided to complete this.
Format your assignment according to the following formatting requirements:
o The answer should be typed, using Times New Roman font (size 12), double spaced, with one-inch margins on all sides.
o The response also includes a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student's name, the course title, and the date. The cover page is not included in the required page length.
o Also include a reference page. The Citations and references must follow APA format. The reference page is not included in the required page length.