Topic: Applied Time Series Analysis for Forecasting
Case: Nike Revenue Forecast
Background: You are hired as a research analyst at a small investment firm to evaluate Nike Inc.'s performance by analyzing the firm's revenues. Some analysts argue that Nike's revenue may slow down due to the global economic crisis and increased competition from emerging brands. Others believe that with a strong and free cash flow, Nike will likely survive this current environment and emerge stronger as some of the weaker competitors get squeezed. You fully understands that nobody really knows how well this Oregon-based sportswear company will perform in a softening global economy. However you believe that Nike's past performance will aid in forecasting its future performance. Robertas has collected quarterly data on Nike's revenue for the fiscal years 1999 through 2008.
Perform a google search to find Nike's revenue for 2011-2016.
Data: Quarterly revenue are in Nike revenue.xlsx
Task: Build forecasting models to forecast Nike's revenue for 2011-2017:
- Model 1: using 1999-2010 data predict revenue for 2011-2017
- Model 2: using 1999-2011 data predict revenue for 2012-2017
- Model 3: using 1999-2012 data predict revenue for 2013-2017
- Model 4: using 1999-2013 data predict revenue for 2014-2017
- Model 5: using 1999-2014 data predict revenue for 2015-2017
- Model 6: using 1999-2015 data predict revenue for 2016-2017
- Model 7: using 1999-2016 data predict revenue for 2017-2018
Prepare a report to summarize your approach(es) and findings. You will need to convey statistical information in written form to those who may not know statistical terminology. Your report is needed as input for managerial decision making in sales, marketing, and company planning.
Extra Credit:
Read the article:
For $305 Million, Nike Buys Converse By LESLIE WAYNE,
Nike , known for its shoes and its swoosh, has Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods on its corporate team. Now it is lining up yet another sports legend: for $305 million, Nike is buying Converse, a century-old footwear company and maker of the celebrated Chuck Taylor All Star shoe.
The deal announced yesterday, for cash and debt, brings together one of the oldest names in athletic footwear with perhaps the world's best-known sports shoe brand. It also opens a chapter for the financially troubled Converse, which dominated the athletic footwear business for decades before stumbling into bankruptcy in the early 1990's.Converse and Nike represent two different types of shoes, heritages and prices. Nike, with $10.7 billion in sales, has carved out a profitable niche by lining up some of sport's biggest stars, among them LeBron James for $90 million; churning out sports shoes that can cost up to $150 a pair; and starting a chain of slick Niketown stores selling shoes, equipment and apparel.
Converse, based in North Andover Mass., has sales of $205 million annually. Generations of Americans, since 1908, donned the company's canvas and rubber round-toe shoes. Its products are sold in over 12,000 sports and chain stores around the world and through licensing agreements in over 100 countries. Converse has built a reputation for lower-priced and more traditional shoes.
Task: In 2003 Nike bought Converse and Nike wants to evaluate whether this decision has significantly positively affected revenue. Using an appropriate data science techniques, help Nike management understand the impact of Converse on revenue.
Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar