Assignment:
For each model compute the Mean Absolute Deviation.
(Note: in order to include the same number of measurements for all models, only include years 5 to 11 in your computation.)
Choose the best-fitting model according to the MAD criteria.
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| year |
demmand |
3 yr avg |
4 yr avg |
exp smoothing |
Naïve |
|
| 1 |
7 |
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6 |
|
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| 2 |
9 |
|
|
6.3 |
|
7 |
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| 3 |
5 |
|
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7.11 |
|
9 |
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| 4 |
9 |
7 |
|
6.477 |
|
5 |
|
| 5 |
13 |
7.6666 |
7.5 |
7.233 |
|
9 |
|
| 6 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
8.96 |
|
13 |
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| 7 |
12 |
10 |
8.75 |
8.67 |
|
8 |
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| 8 |
13 |
11 |
10.5 |
9.67 |
|
12 |
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| 9 |
9 |
11 |
11.5 |
10.6 |
|
13 |
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| 10 |
11 |
11.333 |
10.5 |
10.19 |
|
9 |
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| 11 |
7 |
11 |
11.25 |
9.4 |
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11 |
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