Calculate the expected return and standard deviation


Assignment Task 1: IT Software Project

As a senior analyst for the company you have been asked to evaluate a new IT software project. The company has just paid a consulting firm $50,000 for a test marketing analysis. After looking at the project plan, you anticipate that the project will need to acquire computer hardware for a cost of $400,000. The Australian Taxation Office rules allow an effective life for the computer hardware of five years. The equipment can be depreciated on a straight-line (prime cost) basis and there is no expected salvage value after the five years.

Your company does not have any available space where the project can be located for five years and you anticipate a new office will cost $80,000 to rent for the first year. The office rental is expected to increase by 3% every year. You expect that the project will need to hire 3 new software specialists at $50,000 (each specialist) in the first year for the full five years to work on the software but you expect that their salary will increase by 5% every year.

The project will use a van currently owned by the company and although the van is not currently being used by the company, it can be rented out for $5,000 per year for five years (inclusive inflation). The book value of the van is $20,000. The van is being depreciated straight-line (with five years remaining for depreciation) and is expected to be worthless after the five years.

Expected annual marketing and selling costs will be incurred during the life of the project (5 years), with the first year expecting to be $200,000 and will increase by 20% per year. The produced software is expected to sell at $100 per unit while the cost to produce each unit is $40. You expect that 10,000 units will be sold in the first year and the number of units sold will increase by 20% a year for the remaining four years. The project will need working capital of $50 000 to commence the business (in year 0) and will increase by $10 000 every year but the investment in working capital is to be completely recovered by the end of the project's life (in year 5). The company tax rate is 30%, and the discount rate is 10%.

Based on the information presented above, answer the following questions (1) - (3).

Problem 1: In evaluating the new IT software project, are the cost of $50,000 spent on marketing analysis and the use of van relevant for capital budgeting decision? Explain your answer(s).

Problem 2: Calculate the incremental free cash flow during the project's life (from Years 0 to 5). Show workings.

Problem 3: Calculate the NPV, payback period and IRR of the project. Should the project be accepted? Show workings and explain your answer(s).

Assignment Task 2: Risk and return

You are considering an investment in the stock market and have identified two potential stocks, they are Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). The year-end historical prices for the years 2010 to 2018 are shown in the table below.

Year

Rio Tinto

Amazon

2010

48.51

125.41

2011

69.48

169.64

2012

60.46

194.44

2013

56.47

264.27

2014

53.15

358.69

2015

44.13

354.53

2016

24.65

587

2017

44.79

823.48

2018

56.11

1450.89

Problem 1: Which stocks would you prefer to own? Would every rational investor make the same choice? Explain your answer(s).

Problem 2: Calculate the covariance and correlation coefficient between the two stocks. Does it appear that a portfolio consisting of RIO and AMZN would provide good diversification? Explain your answer(s).

Problem 3: Calculate the expected (annual) return and standard deviation if you owned a portfolio consisting of 70% in AMZN and 30% in RIO.

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