Using the forecasting results from Exercise 2.2, calculate MAD and MAPE for naïve, four- period, and six- period forecasts. Which forecast appears more accurate?
Exercises :
Patient days in a hospital were recorded as shown in Table EX 2.2 .
a. Predict naïve forecasts of patient days for February and June.
b. Predict the patient days for January, using a four - period moving average.
c. Predict the patient days for January, using the six - period moving average.
d. Plot the actual data and the results of the four - period and the six - period moving averages. Which method is a better predictor?