Problem
1. Propose baseline models for one or more of the following The Quant Shop challenges:
• Miss Universe.
• Movie gross.
• Baby weight.
• Art auction price.
• Snow on Christmas.
• Super Bowl/college champion.
• Ghoul pool.
• Future gold/oil price.
2. Build a model to forecast the outcomes of one of the following types of be table events, and rigorously analyze it through back testing:
(a) Sports like football, basketball, and horse racing.
(b) Pooled bets involving multiple events, like soccer pools or the NCAA basketball tournament.
(c) Games of chance like particular lotteries, fantasy sports, and poker.
(d) Election forecasts for local and congressional elections.
(e) Stock or commodity price prediction/trading.
Rigorous testing will probably confirm that your models are not strong enough for profitable wagering, and this is 100% ok. Be honest: make sure that you are using fresh enough prices/odds to reflect betting opportunities which would still be available at the time you place your simulated bet. To convince me that your model is in fact genuinely profitable, send me a cut of the money and then I will believe you.