BP and Rosneft 2015 - BP (UK) and Rosneft (Russia) had severed a long-term joint venture in 2013, with Rosneft buying BP out with $55 billion in cash and a 20% interest (equity interest) in Rosneft itself. Rosneft financed a large part of the buyout by borrowing heavily. The following year, in July 2014, BP received a dividend on its ownership interest in Rosneft of RUB24 billion.
But Rosneft’s performance had been declining, as was the Russian ruble. The winter of 2014-2015 in Europe was a relatively mild one, and Europe’s purchases of Rosneft’s natural gas had fallen as had the price of natural gas. Rosneft’s total sales were down, and the ruble had clearly fallen dramatically (table on p. 269). And to add debt to injury, Rosneft was due to make a payment of USD19.5 billion in 2015 on its debt from the BP buyout.
a. Assuming a spot rate of RUB34.78 = USD1.00 in July 2014, how much was the dividend paid to BP us U.S. dollars?
b. If Rosneft were to pay the same dividend to BP in July 2015, and the spot rate at the time was RUB75 = 1.00USD, what would BP receive in U.S. dollars?
c. If the combination of Western sanctions against Russia and lower global oil prices truly sent the Russian economy into recession, and the spot rate was RUB75 = 1.00USD in July 2015, what might BP’s dividend be in July 2015?