Your company is seeking to forecast demand for the next month based on the information given in the following table:
|
Month
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
Aug
|
Oct
|
Sept
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
Demand
|
40
|
44
|
43
|
45
|
42
|
50
|
48
|
54
|
|
a. (6) Develop a forecast for December using a weighted moving average where wt-1 = 0.6,
wt-2 = 0.25, wt-3 = 0.1, and wt-4 = 0.05
b. (6) If the forecast in May was 42, develop a forecast for December based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.25.
c. (8) For the data set below, determine the bias, the mean squared error and the mean absolute deviation.
|
Forecast
|
|
83
|
85
|
80
|
81
|
84
|
86
|
88
|
90
|
|
Demand
|
80
|
85
|
78
|
82
|
86
|
88
|
92
|
94
|
|