Directions: Answer the following five questions on a separate document. Explain how you reached the answer or show your work if a mathematical calculation is needed, or both. Submit your assignment using the assignment link in the course shell. Each question is worth five points apiece for a total of 20 points for this homework assignment.
1. Commodore Corporation is deciding whether to invest in a project today or to postpone the decision until next year. The project has a positive expected NPV, but its cash flows could be less than expected, in which case the NPV could be negative. No competitors are likely to invest in a similar project if Commodore decides to wait. Which of the following statements best describes the issues that Commodore faces when considering this investment timing option?
a. The investment timing option does not affect the cash flows and will therefore have no impact on the project's risk.
b. The more uncertainty about the future cash flows, the more logical it is for Commodore to go ahead with this project today.
c. Since the project has a positive expected NPV today, this means that its expected NPV will be even higher if it chooses to wait a year.
d. Since the project has a positive expected NPV today, this means that it should be accepted in order to lock in that NPV.
e. Waiting would probably reduce the project's risk.
2. Which of the following is most CORRECT?
a. Real options change the size, but not the risk, of projects' expected cash flows.
b. Real options change the risk, but not the size, of projects' expected cash flows.
c. Real options are likely to reduce the cost of capital that should be used to discount a project's expected cash flows.
d. Very few projects actually have real options.
e. Real options are less valuable when there is a lot of uncertainty about the true values future sales and costs.
3. Lighthouse Corporation uses the NPV method for selecting projects, and it does a reasonably good job of estimating projects' sales and costs. However, it never considers real options that might be associated with projects. Which of the following statements is most likely to describe its situation?
a. Its estimated capital budget is probably too small, because projects' NPVs are often larger when real options are taken into account.
b. Its estimated capital budget is probably too large due to its failure to consider abandonment and growth options.
c. Failing to consider abandonment and flexibility options probably makes the optimal capital budget too large, but failing to consider growth and timing options probably makes the optimal capital budget too small, so it is unclear what impact not considering real options has on the overall capital budget.
d. Failing to consider abandonment and flexibility options probably makes the optimal capital budget too small, but failing to consider growth and timing options probably makes the optimal capital budget too large, so it is unclear what impact not considering real options has on the overall capital budget.
e. Real options should not have any effect on the size of the optimal capital budget.
4. Texas Wildcatters Inc. (TWI) is in the business of finding and developing oil properties, and then selling the successful ones to major oil refining companies. TWI is now considering a new potential field, and its geologists have developed the following data, in thousands of dollars.
t = 0. A $400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0. The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project.
t = 1. If the feasibility study indicates good potential, the firm would spend $1,000 at t = 1 to drill exploratory wells. The best estimate is that there is an 80% probability that the exploratory wells would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done, and a 20% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned.
t = 2. If the exploratory wells test positive, TWI would go ahead and spend $10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2. The best estimate now is that there is a 60% probability that the results would be very good and a 40% probability that results would be poor and the field would be abandoned.
t = 3. If the full drilling program is carried out, there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a $25,000 cash inflow at t = 3, and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then only receiving a $10,000 inflow.
Since the project is considered to be quite risky, a 20% cost of capital is used. What is the project's expected NPV, in thousands of dollars?
a. $336.15
b. $373.50
c. $415.00
d. $461.11
e. $507.22
5. Nebraska Pharmaceuticals Company (NPC) is considering a project that has an up-front cost at t = 0 of $1,500. (All dollars in this problem are in thousands.) The project's subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether a competitor's product is approved by the Food and Drug Administration. If the FDA rejects the competitive product, NPC's product will have high sales and cash flows, but if the competitive product is approved, that will negatively impact NPC. There is a 75% chance that the competitive product will be rejected, in which case NPC's expected cash flows will be $500 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7). There is a 25% chance that the competitor's product will be approved, in which case the expected cash flows will be only $25 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7). NPC will know for sure one year from today whether the competitor's product has been approved. NPC is considering whether to make the investment today or to wait a year to find out about the FDA's decision. If it waits a year, the project's up-front cost at t = 1 will remain at $1,500, the subsequent cash flows will remain at $500 per year if the competitor's product is rejected and $25 per year if the alternative product is approved. However, if NPC decides to wait, the subsequent cash flows will be received only for six years (t = 2 ... 7).
Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 10%, if NPC chooses to wait a year before proceeding, how much will this increase or decrease the project's expected NPV in today's dollars (i.e., at t = 0), relative to the NPV if it proceeds today?
a. $77.23
b. $85.81
c. $95.34
d. $105.94
e. $116.53