An entrepreneur wishes to enter the amusement park business. She is choosing between two strategies:
a. Open a water park, a theme park, and a roller coaster park. Each park has a 75% chance of being profitable within her desired time frame. However, the parks require separate marketing efforts, so in order for the whole venture to be successful, all three parks must be profitable.
b. Open a chain of three roller coaster parks in nearby counties. Each park has a 25% chance of making a profit within her desired time frame. This project does not require heavy marketing spending, so in order for it to be successful, at least one park must be profitable.
Which option is more likely to be successful? Show your work for how you determined your answer. Why do people sometimes choose the less promising option?