Problem:
Chen Transport, a U.S. based company, is considering expanding its operations into a foreign country. The required investment at Time = 0 is $10 million. The firm forecasts total cash inflows of $4 million per year for 2 years, $6 million for the next 2 years, and then a possible terminal value of $8 million. In addition, due to political risk factors, Chen believes that there is a 50% chance that the gross terminal value will be only $2 million and a 50% chance that it will be $8 million. However, the government of the host country will block 20% of all cash flows. Thus, cash flows that can be repatriated are 80% of those projected. Chen's cost of capital is 15%, but it adds one percentage point to all foreign projects to account for exchange rate risk. Under these conditions, what is the project's NPV? Elucidate comprehensively and provide all workings and methods.
Select one:
A. $1.01 million
B. $2.77 million
C. $3.09 million
D. $5.96 million
E. $7.39 million