United States, Inc., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade Country, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks are:
|
Week
|
Sales
|
Week
|
Sales
|
|
1
|
2750
|
7
|
3300
|
|
2
|
3100
|
8
|
3100
|
|
3
|
3250
|
9
|
2950
|
|
4
|
2800
|
10
|
3000
|
|
5
|
2900
|
11
|
3200
|
|
6
|
3050
|
12
|
3150
|
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Use exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 to develop a forecast of demand for week 13. What is the resulting MSE?