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Incorporate this additional cost into your model. How many calendars would you recommend that Leah order based on this new model?
Why should you not model a decision variable as a random variable with a probability distribution?
Explain how the simulation process works to produce results that are helpful to a decision maker.
Compare the fit of the normal distribution CDF to the empirical CDF by superimposing them onto one graph.
It was suggested that five is the minimum number of data points. What makes us reluctant to use data to estimate small probability values?
What subjective judgments, both explicit and implicit, must the analyst make in creating and using this model?
Find the probability that A's lifetime exceeds its expected value. Do the same for B. What do you conclude?
Find this probability (i) if two customers just arrived within the first 20 minutes and (ii) if no customers have come into the shop yet on this particular day.
Find the probability that a strike lasts less than one day. Find the probability that a strike lasts less than six days.
Make the necessary calculations to verify the Empirical Rule for normal distributions, which states that the probability is approximately 0.68.
Discuss how having more information (assessments) can lead to ambiguity in the distribution choice instead of identifying a unique distribution.
In the binomial example with Melissa Bailey, what is the probability that she will be gone six or more weekends?
How is it that these probability estimates could vary so widely? How should a decision maker deal with probability estimates that are so different?
What kinds of information should a jury consider when deciding whether a plaintiff's claims of damages are reasonable? Anecdotes?
What issues must be taken into account? What kind of scientific evidence would help in making the necessary assessments?
Many people prefer A in the first choice and D in the second. Do you think this is inconsistent? Explain.
Which would make the sketched CDF smoother and smoother. How do we know when to stop making assessments and when to keep going?
When your parents express concern, what statistical phenomenon might you invoke to persuade them not to worry about the D?
Which probability assessment heuristic is at work in the gambler's fallacy? Explain.
In particular, what did you learn in your research that had an impact on the assessment? What kinds of decomposition helped you in your assessment process?
Assess the probability that you will be hospitalized for more than one day during the upcoming year. In what other ways might this assessment be decomposed?
Does p = q? Which of the two assessments are you more confident about? Would you adjust your assessments to make p = q? Why or why not?
Repeat part a, but construct the extended Swanson-Megill approximations. Compare your estimated expected values from the two methods.
What is the probability of finding no chocolate chips in a given cookie? Fewer than 5 chocolate chips? More than 10 chips?
Given your posterior probability, should your company adopt the new machines in order to minimize expected repair costs?