Problem
After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand.
The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.
| Period |
Actual |
Period |
Actual |
| 1 |
209 |
6 |
270 |
| 2 |
225 |
7 |
278 |
| 3 |
227 |
8 |
287 |
| 4 |
239 |
9 |
292 |
| 5 |
255 |
10 |
Use a=.5 and ß=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)