Assignment:
Question 1: PM Computer Services assembles customized personal computers from generic parts. The company was formed and is operated by two part-time university students, Paul and Bryan. The company has experienced steady growth since started. The computer parts are bought using volume discounts when good deals can be found. As such it is important that they develop a good model to forecast demand for their computers so that they will know how many computer components parts to purchase and stock.
The company has accumulated computer demand data over a 12-month period. The data are shown in the Excel worksheet tab named "PM" (see mediafire link for Excel worksheet).
a. Using the Excel Insert Tab Line Graph and follow-up Chart Tools Tabs, construct an appropriate line chart displaying the time pattern of computer demand data. Please create a professional appearing chart with labeling and titles. A legend is probably not needed. Move the chart so that it starts in cell J4 and fits within the red shaded area. Is the time pattern stationary? Yes or No in cell M3.
b. Using StatTools, create the Optimal Parameters Exponential Smoothing (Simple) forecast incorporating only Forecast Overlay and Forecast Errors Charts. Anchor the output in cell A1 of the StatTools PM Worksheet.
c. Using StatTools, create the Optimal Parameters Exponential Smoothing (Holt's) forecast incorporating only Forecast Overlay and Forecast Errors Charts. Anchor the output in cell G1 of the StatTools PM Worksheet.
d. In the blue area designated Analysis, provide a managerial analysis for Paul and Bryan incorporating any patterns you have identified, recommending a forecasting method (with reasons), and providing your best forecast for the upcoming month.