Assignment:
Analysing and the summary is needed. The below are the hints given:
1. Choose one of the recession periods from 1969 to 2007 (see figure 9.1 of Textbook p.302, 2nd Edn.)
2. Get monthly data on leading Economic Index (LEI) prepared by the Conference Board, for six months preceding the recession and six months in the expansion phase.
3. To what extent the LEI gauge strength and weaknesses in the economy? In the period you are investigating how clearly do LEI forecast the economy? Do you observe any false signals from LEI? Economy's strength and weaknesses are measured by real GDP, rate of unemployment, inflation rate, short term rates of interest, (3month T-bill rate and Federal Funds rate (FFR)). Take average monthly T-bill and FFR rates. Quarterly GDP growth rate is provided by BEA -see sample 9.2 p306 of Textbook.
The Conference Board also publishes monthly Coincident Economic Index (CET) and Lagging Economic Index (LAG). A scanned copy of the graph of LEI and CED is attached.
4. Examine the response of federal government and the Federal Reserve to stabilize the economy during that period.
5. Discuss (providing data) how U.S recession and recovery impacted on the economies of Europe and Canada. You could take any large country in Europe prior to 1973 or the EU as a whole after that date.
6. While examining LEI, how well did some of the financial indicators such as SP 500 common stock index, money supply, interest rate spread relate with economic outlook during that period.
7. The Conference Board provides LEI for ten countries. You can choose any one of those countries for your project.