I have historical price data along with other variables (Technical Analysis). Can you come up with a forecasting model or formula to accurately predict the yellow area on excel sheet.
I have attached spread sheet for your review
Blue Columns = Historical price (Daily)
White Columns = Outcome of Technical Analysis
Yellow Columns = What I would like to forecast (Next Day's Close)
We should be able to back test against historical data for accuracy.
Looking for accuracy between 70-85%
I'm not sure if you are familiar with this but I know a person who is doing extremely well forecasting stock price using KNN Learning Algorithm.
Do you know anything about this? Can this be done in excel or do we need more powerful software?
Are you familiar with any of this?
Main Points
If everything can be done in excel that would be fine but I'm not sure if excel is powerful enough to do what I am trying to do.
This is what I would like to see
1. Be able to automatically pull historical data from the web or other source by just entering stock or currency symbol and Time Period.
- Yahoo Finance is what's usually used to pull historical and intraday data for (Stocks)
- MyFXBook.com is what's usually used to pull historical and intraday data for (Currencies)
2. Apply a learning algorithm like KNN or others you may be familiar with to analyze the data and predict whether next days close will be above or below current closing price.
3. We should be able to efficiently backtest data and give a report on % Forecasted right and % Forecasted Wrong
Please review everything and be in touch with me on any other information you would need and whether or not you can create something like this.
Can you also make sure that it not only picks up historical data but can be updated for intraday data as well?
For example ... Markets close at 4:00 PM
So I would need to be able to download available data
As of 3:00 PM so i can run the algorithm and make trading
Decisions for next day before the market closes
The market will not change much within the last hour of the day
I found this website to download data. It may help us
https://www.quandl.com/tools
Attachment:- Forecasting_Data.xlsx