Questions
Question 1. Based on your analysis of the best exponential smoothing and cycle adjusted decomposition forecast MAPE and residual analysis which model produces the best results and why? The exponential smoothing model forecast is best since it picked up cycle better than the adjusted decomposition forecast and produced more random residuals.
The decomposition forecast is best since it picks up seasonality much better than the exponential smoothing model and produces high Chi-square values.
The exponential smoothing model is best since it has lower error measures than the decomposition model forecast and is, therefore, more accurate.
The decomposition model forecast is best since the forecast is closer to the Hold Out and it produced lower error for the forecast period.
Question 2. Forecast error measures and residual analysis can only be used where quantitative forecast methods and models are applied to data.
True
False
Question 3 Which form of exponential smoothing can result in a naïve forecast?
Winters with a very low seasonal coefficient.(high trend)
1Winters with a very low seasonal coefficient.(high trend)
2Single with a very low trend coefficient.
3Single with a very high alpha value.
4Double with a very low alpha value.