What is the trend estimate


Discuss the below:

Project Quantitative methods

Q1.  In testing  9 sedans, Cars and Driver magazine rated each on 13 different characteristics, including ride, handling, and driver comfort. Each vehicle also received an overall rating.  Scores for each vehicle were as follows;

                               Y=                                                                x3=

Car                         Overall                  x1 =         x2 =                        Driver

Rating                   Ride       Handling              Comfort

1                              83                           8              7                       7

2                              86                           8              8                       8

3                              83                           6              8                        7

4                              83                           8              7                        9                             

5                              95                           9              9                        9

6                              84                           8              8                        9

7                              88                           9              6                         9

8                              82                           7              8                         7

9                              92                           8              9                         8

a. Determine the least-squares multiple regression equation.

b. Interpret the y-intercept and partial regression coefficients.

c. What is the estimated overall rating for a vehicle that scores 6 on ride, 9 on handling, and 7 on driver comfort?

Q2. Fit a linear trend equation to the following data describing average hourly earnings of U.S. production workers.  What is the trend estimate for 2010?

Years:                2001      2002     2003  2004

Average hourly

Earnings:             $14.53     $14.95   $15.35  $15.67

Q3. From 1997 through 2004, the value of U.S. exports to Mexico was as shown below.  Data are in billions of dollars.

Year                       1997                       1998                       1999                       2000

Export:                 $71.4                     $78.8                     $86.9                     $111.3

Year:                      2001                       2002                       2003                       2004

Export:                 $101.3                   $97.5                     $97.4                     110.8

a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series.  Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2012.

b. Fit a quadratic equation to the time series, then use the equation, determine the trend estimate for 2012.

c.  Construct a graph of the time series along with the equations fitted in parts (a) and (b).  Which equation appears to better fit the data.

Q4 The following data show residential and commercial natural gas consumption (quadrillion Btu) from 1985 through 2000.

Year                       Consumption                     Year                       Consumption

                1985                       27.6                                        1993                                       30.6

                1986                       26.9                                        1994                                       30.8

1987                       27.6                                        1995                                       31.6

1988                       28.9                                        1996                                       33.0

1989                       29.4                                        1997                                       33.0

1990                       29.2                                        1998                                       32.8

1991                       30.1                                        1999                                       35.8

1992                       29.6                                        2000                                       37.4

a. Construct a graph of the time series, then superimpose a three-year centered moving average over the original series.

b. Superimpose a five-year centered moving average over the original series.  Why is the moving average "smoother" when N=5?.

Q5 U.S. cellular phone subscribership has reported as shown below fro 1993- 2004 period.

Year                       Subscribers                         Year                       Subscribers

                                (Millions)                                                             (Millions)

1993                       16.0                                        1999                       86.0

1994                       24.1                                        2000                       109.5

1995                       33.8                                        2001                       128.4

1996                       44.0                                        2002                       140.8

1997                       55.3                                        2003                       158.7

1998                       69.2                                        2004                       182.1

From the data, use the weighting constant α = 0.5 and exponential smoothing to determine the forecast for 2005.

Q6. When the robot welder is functioning properly, the natural gas cylinders being produced have average burst strength of 3400 psi, with a standard deviation of 100 psi.  Determine the centerline and the upper and lower control limits for a 3-sigma mean control chart in which each sample consists of 4 cylinders.

Q7.  Automobiles are randomly selected for a clase examination for fit-and-finish defects, including such items as dirt specks in the paint and panels that are not properly aligned.  Based on data collected for the following vehicles that were so inspected, construct a 3-sigma c-chart, then reach a conclusion regarding whether the process is in control.

Vehicle                 c=Number                          Vehicle                 c=Number

Number               of Defects                           Number               of Defects

1                              4                                              11                           6

2                              7                                              12                           10

3                              4                                              13                           5

4                              9                                              14                           10

5                              9                                              15                           7

6                              8                                              16                           6

7                              7                                              17                           8

8                              6                                              18                           5

9                              7                                              19                           7

10                           5                                              20                           11

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