Consider an investment opportunity with an option to grow that requires a $10m investment today. In one year we will find out whether the project is successful or not. The probability that the project will generate $1M per year in perpetuity (starting from one year after the investment is made; that is, starting from year 1) is 50%. Otherwise, the project will generate nothing. You can double the size of the project in year 1 if the original project is successful. Proceeding with the extension will require an additional $10m investment which will allow the firm to generate an incremental annual cash flow $1M in perpetuity starting from year 2 (that is, there is no uncertainty about future cash flows from the extended project). Assume the risk-adjusted discount rate is 6% p.a. and do not consider any other factors.
(a) What is the NPV of the project without growth option?
(b) What is the NPV of the project with growth option? (Hint: compute the PV of the growth option first by considering cash flows from the expanded project only)