What is the best pure strategy for a reindeer farmer


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Q: Reindeer herdsmen in Finland must frequently decide whether to slaughter reindeer that are expected to calve the following season, or to leave them in the wild in the expectation of future profit from their calves. If a cow is left in the wild, there are three likely outcomes: (1) the cow and its calf will be found the next season; (2) the cow andits calf will be alive, but not found the next season; (3) the cow will die prior to calving. (There are other possibilities as well, such as: the cow lives but the calf dies, the calf lives but the cow dies, etc., but these are comparatively rare, and are thus ignored.) Using estimates of the value of a cow and of a calf, the future values of each, T. Ingold came up with the following payoff matrix, where the payoffs represent the revenue per deer in dollars: Cow & Calf Found Alive & Not Found Cow Dies Leave in Wild 300 100 0 Slaughter 200 200 200

(a) Assuming that 50% of the cows left in the wild will be found, 40% will be alive and not found, and 10% of them will die, find the average revenue per cow if a herdsman slaughters half the reindeer that are expected to calve the following season.

(b) What is the best pure strategy for a reindeer farmer, given that 70% of the cows left in the wild will be found, 25% will be alive and not found, and 5% of them will die?

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