Q- Fair savings bank is trying to develop a forecast on newly open checking accounts.
As the bank's manager you are to analyze two forecasting techniques: an exponential smoothing technique, and a 3-period weighted moving average, use the following information to develop the forecasts and fillin the table, then answer the questions that follow. For exponential smoothing, the forecast for the first week is given and the alpha parameter value is 0.2.
When calculating MAD and MSE for exponential smoothing include the first period's forecast into your calculation For average the following weights are used 05.0.3. and 0.2
| Week# |
Acutal Demand(Dt)
|
Exponential Smooting |
e |
|e| |
e^2 |
weighted (WMA) |
e |
|e| |
e^2 |
|
| 1 |
93 |
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
89 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
106 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fill in the table and answer the following questions. Report your numerical answers to two decimal places and be sure to interpret each of your numerical answers if applicable, or write "cannot interpreted because" (your reasoning)
1- what is the MAD for the exponential smoothing forecast?
2- What is the MAD weighted moving average forecast?
3- Evaluating based on MAD, which of the two forecasting techniques is more accurate and why?
4- What is the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast?
5-. What is the MSE for the weighted moving average forecast?
6- Evaluating based on MSE, which of the forcasting techniques ismore accurate and why?