Linear Regression Exponential Smoothing / Linear regression
Slope =
Forecast for CPI in 2011= /
Intercept = MAPE= /
Year Period CPI Exp. Smoothing Forecast Linear Regression Forecast
2001 1 102.8
2002 2 104.5 103.48
2003 3 106.8 105.42
2004 4 109.7 107.96
2005 5 113.4 111.18
2006 6 117.1 114.88
2007 7 120.4 118.42
2008 8 125.0 122.24
2009 9 124.6 124.84
2010 10 126.6 125.4
2011 11 75.5
1) Use Exponential smotthing with alpha =0.4 to generate a forecast for CPI in the year 2011. Begin with a naive initialization.
2) Use the regression tool in Excel or the "bulit in" Excel functions to determine the trend line and generate a forecast for CPI in the year 2011.
3) For each of the two forecasting method you used, generate backcasts and compute MAPE.