Question
The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.
|
Year
|
Mergers
|
Year
|
Mergers
|
|
2000
|
46
|
2006
|
83
|
|
2001
|
46
|
2007
|
123
|
|
2002
|
62
|
2008
|
97
|
|
2003
|
45
|
2009
|
186
|
|
2004
|
64
|
2010
|
225
|
|
2005
|
61
|
2011
|
240
|
a. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.
b. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.
c. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.
d. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.