Use rayleigh distribution to obtain probability of water


Assignment Task 1: Ocean Waves

Question 1: A jacket rig is to be designed and fixed to the sea bed. A buoy has recorded the following wave heights for the rig's operating field:

Wave Height (m)

0-2

02-Apr

04-Jun

06-Aug

08-Oct

Number of Waves

1040

1250

300

200

50

The drilling machinery is expected to be placed on the drill floor, which is located 5.5m above the mean sea level.

a) Use Rayleigh distribution to obtain the probability of the water reaching this level.

b) How will this probability change (based on Rayleigh distribution and the distribution defined by the data from the previous table if the machinery platform were to be placed at 4m above the sea level.

c) Plot the wave height histogram along with the theoretical Rayleigh Distribution

d) Calculate the significant wave height H(1/3), the H(1/10), and H(1/100) based on the wave elevation's data.

e) In your opinion, is it feasible to place the drill floor at 5.5m above the mean sea level'?

Question 2: The marine design consultancy where you work has been commissioned to design a new multi-purpose vessel for operation in open ocean conditions at the North Atlantic Ocean.

a) What possible sources would be available for identifying the wave environment that the new vessel will encounter during operations'? Provide advantages and disadvantages of each one.

b) What idealized wave spectrum would you use and why'?

c) Using the Pierson-Markowitz spectrum formulation, plot a seaway spectral density considering a significant wave height as per the table below. Select the significant wave height considering a 50-Year Return Period. Justify your decision.

Cell 110 56.75'N

Significant Wave Height Extremes oy Return Period

57 5 W Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

10 Year 10 3 10.1 9.5 7 8 6 2 S. 3 4 3 5 7.7 9 4 10 7 10.9 11.6

25 Year 11.5 11.6 10.8 8.9 7.2 6.1 4.9 5.7 9 10.7 12.3 12 12.3

Z 50 Year 12 4 12 8 11 8 g 7 7 9 6 6 5 4 6 3 10 11 7 13 4 12 9 12 g

100 Yr. 13.3 13.9 12.B 10.5 8 6 7.2 5.8 6.8 1 0.9 12 7 14.6 13.7 13.5

d) Determine the wave amplitude for each circular wave frequencies in the spectral density curve

e) Calculate ¯Tz, ¯Tp and ¯λw

f) Calculate the bandwidth parameter e and explain the results

Question 3: Why do you think a submarine would go deep into the ocean during a storm?

Assignment Task 2:

Objective: Prepare a shipbuilding cost estimate for the following new construction ship:

Ship type: Product tanker

Deadweight: 35,000 tons

Light ship weight: 14,000

tons Gross tonnage: 25,000 gt

Weight breakdown by SWBS group:

Group

 Title  

Weight (tons)

100

Structure

9,000

200

Propulsion Machinery

1,000

300

Electrical

300

400

Command & Surveillance

25

500

Auxiliary Machinery

2,000

600

Outfit

1,675

Engineering hours (group 800) = 25% of the sum of group 100 to 600 hours Support Services hours (group 900) = 50% of the sum of group 100 to 600 hours

Your estimate deliverable will have seven sections:

1. Direct labor rate: specify and explain.

2. Overhead rate: specify and explain.

3. Levels of management reserve and profit: specify and explain.

4. A well-documented Excel spreadsheet to estimate the shipyard's cost to design and build the ship and the bid price.

5. A cross check. That is, check your results using different (simpler) approaches and/or different information sources.

6. How competitive do you expect your bid will be?

7. What action(s) do you recommend to increase your competitiveness and/or profit?

Assignment Task 3:

Problem 1:

Table 1 shows the fatigue test data, AISI 1045 steel.

a) Use linear regression to estimate the best fit to the data in log-log scale. Show the line on the same graph with the data.

b) Sketch upper and lower bounds for the data and comment on the observed scatter. Estimate the fatigue limit for the material and the fatigue strength at lx105 cycles to failure. Estimate the expected fatigue life at the stress amplitude of 175 MPa.

Stress amplitude sa

Fatigue life Nit 

Note

130

10 000 000


130

1 750 000


130

1 600 000


130

2 330 000


130

10 000 000


150

1 860 000


150

1 100 000


150

601 300


150

485 000


170

190 567


170

465 000


170

153 140


170

311 250


185

144 430


185

152 060


185

176 960


185

116 430


220

46 240


220

52 020


220

62 500


220

95 000


220

65 300


245

30 100


245

38 500


245

26 300


245

29 600


Problem 2:

An un-notched member fabricated from AISI 4142 steel (see table) is subjected to the load history shown below.

a) Perform a rain flow count of the load history.

b) Estimate the number of cycles and the number of (blocks) repetitions to failure. Use the Goodman mean stress correction equation.

2238_Load history.jpg

Figure: Load history for one repetition.

Table 2: Constraints for stress-life curves: tests at zero mean stress on unnotched axial specimen.

Material

Yield

Ultimate

True Fracture

σa = σ'f (2Nf )b

#NAME?

Strength

Strength

Strength




σn

σu

σfB

σ2f

A

b = B

(a) Steels







AISI 1015

227

415

725

976

886

-0.14

(normalized)

-33

-60.2

-105

-142

-128


Man-Ten

322

557

990

1089

1006

-0.115

(hot rolled)

-46.7

-80.8

-144

-158

-146


RQC-100

683

758

1186

938

897

-0.0648

(roller Q & T)

-99

-110

-172

-136

-131


AIS1 4142

1584

1757

1998

1937

1837

-0.0762

(Q & T, 450 HB)

-230

-255

-290

-281

-266


AISI 4340

1103

1172

1634

1758

1643

-0.0977

(aircraft quality)

-160

-170

-237

-255

-238


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