Natural gas prices exhibit seasonal volatility. Specifically the entire forward curve is more volatile during the wintertime. Which of the following statements concerning VAR is correct if the VAR is estimated using unweighted historical simulation and a three-year sample period?
A. We will overstate VAR in the summer and understate VAR in the winter.
B. We will overstate VAR in the summer and overstate VAR in the winter.
C. We will understate VAR in the summer and understate VAR in the winter.
D. We will understate VAR in the summer and overstate VAR in the winter.