Two stockbrokers were on their way to lunch on Wall Street when one says to the other, “Oh look, there’s a $20 bill lying on the sidewalk. Let’s pick it up and use it to pay for our lunch.” “Don’t bother,” replies the other, “if there really was a $20 bill lying there in plain view, someone would have seen it and picked it up already. But they didn’t, so it can’t really be there” So the two ignore the $20 bill and walk on by.
The originator of the joke is clearly critical of the EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis), but what do you think? Is the stock market efficient? Can you “beat the market” consistently? Let’s hear your take on the theory.