The business of finding and developing oil properties, and then selling the successful ones to major oil refining companies. TWI is now considering a new potential field, and its geologists have developed the following data, in thousands of dollars. t = 0. A $400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0. The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project. t =1
If the feasibility study indicates good potential, the firm would spend $1,000 at t = 1 to drill exploratory wells. The best estimate is that there is an 80% probability that the exploratory wells would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done, and a 20% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned. t = 2. If the exploratory wells test positive, TWI would go ahead and spend $10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2. The best estimate now is that there is a 60% probability that the results would be very good and a 40% probability that results would be poor and the field would be abandoned. t = 3. If the full drilling program is carried out, there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a $25,000 cash inflow at t = 3, and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then only receiving a $10,000 inflow. Refer to Scenario 14-1. Since the project is considered to be quite risky, a 20% cost of capital is used. What is the project's expected NPV, in thousands of dollars? Answer $336.15 $507.22 $415.00 $373.50 $461.11.