Show that the expected time until the first occurrence


Consider a sequence X1, X2, ... of IID binary rv s with Pr{Xn = 1} = p1 and Pr{X= 0} = p0 = 1 - p1. A renewal is said to occur at time ≥ 2 if Xn-1 = 0 and Xn  = 1.

(a) Show that {N(n); n > 0} is a renewal counting process where N(n) is the number of renewals up to and including time n.

(b) What is the probability that a renewal occurs at time n≥ 2?

(c) Find the expected inter-renewal interval; use Blackwell's theorem.

(d) Now change the definition of renewal so that a renewal occurs at time if Xn-1 = 1 and Xn  = 1. Show that {N∗(n); n≥ 0} is a delayed renewal counting process where is the number of renewals up to and including for this new definition of renewal.

(e) Find E [Yi] for ≥ 2 for the case in (d).

(f) Find E [Y1] for the case in (d). Hint: Show that E [Y1|X1 = 1] = 1 + E [Y2] and

E [Y1|X1 = 0] = 1 + E [Y1].

(g) Looking at your results above for the strings (0,1) and (1,1), show that for an arbitrary string = (a1, ... ak), the arrival process of successive occurrences of the string is a renewal process if no proper suffix of is a prefix of a. Otherwise it is a delayed renewal process.

(h) Suppose a string = (a1, ... ak) of length has no proper suffixes equal to a prefix. Show that the time to the first renewal satisfies

E [Y1] = nk.

£=1 pa£

(i) Suppose the string = (a1, ... ak) has at least one proper suffix equal to a prefix, and suppose is the length of the longest such suffix. Show that the expected time until the first occurrence of is given by

E [Y1] = nk

+ E [Ui] ,

£=1 pa£

where E [Ui] is the expected time until the first occurrence of the string (a1, ... ai).

(j)  Show that the expected time until the first occurrence of = (a1, ... ak) is given by k Ii E [], ni i=1 £=1 pa£

where, for 1 ≤ ≤ k, Iis 1 if the prefix of of length is equal to the suffix of length i. Hint: Use (h) recursively. Also show that if has a suffix of length equal to the prefix of length and also a suffix of length equal to a prefix of length where j i, then the suffix of (a1, ... ai) of length is also equal to the prefix of both and (a1, ... ai) of lengthj.

(k) Use (i) to find, first, the expected time until the first occurrence of (1,1,1,1,1,1,0) and, second, that of (1,1,1,1,1,1). Use (4.31) to check the relationship between these answers.

Text Book: Stochastic Processes: Theory for Applications By Robert G. Gallager.

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Advanced Statistics: Show that the expected time until the first occurrence
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