Return forecasts and risk estimates


Corporate Investment Analysis - in FINANCE.  Reilly, F., & Brown, K. (2012). Investment analysis and portfolio management (10th ed.). Mason, OH: South-Western/ Cengage Learning. Book used by Strayer University.

Question 1: As an equity analyst, you have developed the following return forecasts and risk estimates for two different stock mutual funds (Fund T and Fund U):

        Forecasted  CAPM
          Return      Beta

Fund T    9.0    1.20
Fund U    10.0    .80

A) If the risk-free rate is 3.9% and the expected market risk premium (i.e., E(RM) – RFR) is 6.1%, calculate the expected return for each mutual fund according to the CAPM.

B) Using the estimated expected returns for Part a along with your own return forecasts, demonstrate whether Fund T and Fund U are currently priced to fall directly on the security market line (SML), above the SML, or below the SML.

C) According to your analysis, the Funds T and U overvalued, undervalued, or properly valued?

Question 2: Draw the security market line for each of the following conditions:

a). (1) RFR = 0.08; RM(proxy) = 0.12
     (2) Rz = 0.06; RM(true) = 0.15

b). Rader Tire has the following results for the last six periods.  Calculate and compare the betas using each index.

                                                     RATES OF RETURN
Period    Rader Tire
                 (%)              Proxy Specific Index (%)    True General Index (%)
1                29                             12                              15
2                12                             10                              13
3              -12                             -9                               -8
4               17                              14                              18
5               20                              25                              28
6               -5                             -10                               0
           
c). If the current period return for the market is 12% and for Rader Tire it is 11%, are superior results being obtained for either index beta?

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