Problem 1: Unipart, a manufacturing of auto parts, is considering two B2B marketplaces to purchase its MRO supplies. Both marketplaces offer a full line of supplies at very similar prices for products and shipping. Both provide similar service levels and lead times.
However, their fee structures are quite different. The first marketplace, Part4u.com, sells all of its products with 5 percent commission tacked on top of the price of the product (not including shipping). AIIMRO.com pricing is based on a subscription fee of $10 million that must be paid up front for a two-year period and a commission of 1 percent on each transaction's product price.
Unipart spends about $150 million on MRO supplies each year, although this varies with their utilization will keep MRO spending at $150 million. However, there is a 25 percent chance that spending will drop by 10 percent. The second year, there is a 50 percent chance that the spending level will stay where it was in the first year and a 50 percent chance that it will drop by another 10 percent. Unipart uses a discount rate 20 percent. Assume all costs are incurred at the beginning of each year (so Year 1 costs are incurred now and Year 2 costs are incurred in a year).
Problem 2: Weekly demands at Hot Pizza are as follows:
|
Week
|
Demand ($)
|
|
1
|
108
|
|
2
|
116
|
|
3
|
118
|
|
4
|
124
|
|
5
|
96
|
|
6
|
119
|
|
7
|
96
|
|
8
|
102
|
|
9
|
112
|
|
10
|
102
|
|
11
|
92
|
|
12
|
91
|
Estimate demand for the next four weeks using a four-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bais, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why?