In a study of the effectiveness of "please don't litter" requests on supermarket fliers, Geller, Witmer, and Orebaugh (1976) found that the probability that a flier carrying a "do not litter" message would end up in the trash, if what people do with fliers is independent of the message that is on them, was .033. I also said that 4.5% of those messages actually ended up in the trash. What does this tell you about the effectiveness of messages?