Forecasting using naive moving averages and exponential


BACKGROUND INFORMATION

For this milestone, the goal is to allow you to continue your analysis form Milestone One and forecast various operational parameters for your chosen phone option. There are numerous forecasting tools and techniques available. However, for this project you will only use the nalve, moving average, and exponential smoothing (technique). In addition, you will evaluate trends in time series data, an invaluable skill in the business operations industry. Do not forget to include any assumptions you made during your analysis, as this will be important to decision makers reviewing your documentation.

PROMPT

Often times as part of a Business Case Analysis (BCA), a forecast technique will be utilized to support the recommendation(s). In this milestone, you will complete the forecasting report.

This activity will address the following Module Outcomes:

Predict the best forecasting model for a given business process and associated historical data, using naive forecasts, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trends in time series data. (CO#1, CO#3, CO#4, CO#5)

Assess the best option for sequencing steps in a process utilizing a variety of scheduling rules including shortest-processing-time, weighted-shortest-processing-time, and earliest-due-date. (CO#2)

TASKS

Using the phone option, you recommended in Milestone One, complete the following:

1. Forecasting using naive, moving averages, and exponential smoothing from data in Milestone One.

2. Evaluation of trends in time series data relating to Milestone One choice you selected (there will be data set for each of four possible options).

3. Provide recommendation for and justify a 3-year forecast for expected sales of phones in two different market locations (geographical) (this will be in the format of a Forecast Report, using the provided templatePreview the document.

Compose your work in a .doc or .docx file type using a word processor (such as Microsoft Word, etc.) and save it frequently to your computer. For those assignments that are not written essays and require uploading images or PowerPoint slides, please follow uploading guidelines provided by your instructor.

Check your work and correct any spelling or grammatical errors. When you are ready to submit your work, click "Upload Submission." Enter the submission title and then click on "Select a file to upload." Browse your computer, and select your file. Click "Open" and verify the correct file name has appeared next to Submission File. Click on "Continue." Confirm submission is correct and then click on "Accept Submission & Save."

This course has Turnitin fully integrated into the course dropbox. This means that you should only submit your assignments to the dropbox below. Please do not submit your assignment.

Once submitted, your assignment will be evaluated by Turnitin automatically. You will be able to view an Originality Report within minutes of your first submission that will show how much of your work has been identified as similar to other sources such as websites, textbooks, or other student papers. Use your Originality Report as a learning tool to identify areas of your assignment that you may not have cited appropriately. You may resubmit your assignment through this dropbox as many times as you need to check to see if you have made improvements, until the due date of the assignment. However, once you have made your first submission, you will need to wait 24 hours after each subsequent submission to receive a new Originality Report. Plan accordingly as you draft your assignment. Once the due date has passed, your assignment submission will be considered final.

APA STYLE. REFERNCESS

Attachment:- Report template.rar

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Operation Management: Forecasting using naive moving averages and exponential
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