Problems:
Forecasting Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant ? = 0.1. Use the actual value of the first period as the starting forecast for the second period.
Time Period Actual Value Exponential Smoothing (? = 0.1) Forecast
1 211
2 228 211.00
3 236
4 241
5 242
6 227
7 217
8 203
b.) Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant ? = 0.8. Use the actual value of the first period as the starting forecast for the second period.
Time Period Actual Value Exponential Smoothing (? = 0.8) Forecast
1 211
2 228 211.00
3 236
4 241
5 242
6 227
7 217
8 203
c.) Compute the errors for each forecast and compare the errors produced by using the two different exponential smoothing constants.
Comparison of the methods based on MAD.
Time Period Actual Value Exponential Smoothing (? = 0.1) Forecast Exponential Smoothing (? = 0.8) Forecast Abs Deviation (? = 0.1) Abs Deviation (? = 0.8)
1 211
2 228
3 236
4 241
5 242
6 227
7 217
8 203
MAD