Problem:
Forecasting Based on PPP versus the Forward Rate. You believe that the Singapore dollar's exchange rate movements are mostly attributed to purchasing power parity. Today, the nominal annual interest rate in Singapore is 18%. The nominal annual interest rate in the U.S. is 3%. You expect that annual inflation will be about 4% in Singapore and 1% in the U.S. Assume that interest rate parity holds. Today the spot rate of the Singapore dollar is $.63. Do you think the one-year forward rate would underestimate, overestimate, or be an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate in one year? Explain.