Problem
Suppose you know the following probabilities that describe the reliability of a macroeconomic forecasting firm's past performance:
The probability of a positive forecast given a good macroeconomy is 0.60.
The probability of a negative forecast given a good macroeconomy is 0.40.
The probability of a positive forecast given a bad macroeconomy is 0.25.
The probability of a negative forecast given a bad macroeconomy is 0.75.
Suppose your prior probability of a good macroeconomy is 0.10. Find the probability of a good macroeconomy given that the forecast is for a good macroeconomy and the probability of a bad macroeconomy given that the forecast is for a bad macroeconomy.
The response should include a reference list. Double-space, using Times New Roman 12 pnt font, one-inch margins, and APA style of writing and citations.