Task:
Discussion:
Assume that the bladder cancer death rates in the USA in 2009 are estimated to be 0.48 deaths per 10,000 individuals.
Using the US bladder cancer rate (above) as the standard (expected rate value), you are asked to investigate the number of deaths due to bladder cancer for 10,000 workers in a specific tire plant in 2009.
Occupational Health experts have expressed concern about bladder cancer in this worker population as there were four deaths from bladder cancer observed in this tire plant for the same 2009 period. The experts wonder whether this is an elevated number of deaths (given the US bladder cancer expected rate above), or could this be simply due to chance?...
Given the above, response the following:
a) Explain why poisson is the best distribution to model this study. Using the distribution that you have chosen in 3a above, answer the following questions 3b - 3d:
b) Given the expected rate (0.48 deaths per 10,000), what is the probability of exactly six deaths in 2009?
c) What is the probability of four or more deaths in 2009?
d) What is the probability of four or less deaths in 2009? Do you think that the number of deaths in this tire plant in 2009 is above the US bladder cancer expected death rates?