Assignment
I. Introduction: Explain the usefulness of forecasting the state of the economy one year down the road and the difficulties of being able to do so.
II. Identify the economic history of the past ten years to situate your forecast. Identify important variables such as GDP, interest rates, unemployment rates, price levels, major government spending and taxing programs, private investment, consumption, exports and imports, and the condition of the stock market, etc.
III. Identify the present condition of the above mentioned variables.
III. Create three possible scenarios for the future and approximate how likely each scenario would be. Use the Conference Board index of leading economic indicators to get a sense of how likely a recession is.
IV. Weight each scenario and add them up to create your forecast for what the future will bring.
V. Conclusion.