Discussion Question: Explain the relationship between risk, threat and consequence. Use at least two examples at the local level of government in your response.
Your initial post should be at least 350 words.
Risk and the All Hazards Approach
It seems logical for a course dedicated to the examination of risks, threats and consequences to begin the first segment with addressing the definitions of those terms. They are not as well understood as some might think. So, what are risks, threats and consequences, and how do they apply to the homeland security field?
Let us first establish that homeland security is not a sole function or responsibility of the federal government. It is a collaborative effort of all levels of governments (federal, state, tribal, county and municipal), the private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as the American Red Cross, as well as the public at large. As we look at risk, threats and consequences, we will do so from the perspective of these various levels of government and throughout the entire breath of both the public and private sectors (DHS, 2011).
So exactly what is risk? The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) defines risk in the 2014 Quadrennial Homeland Security Review as a, "function of the likelihood and potential impacts of different homeland security threats and hazards" (DHS, 2014, p. 15). In order to address the issue of risk in a planned and proactive manner, a formula has been developed by DHS and is utilized by those within the homeland security enterprise. This formula is written as: R (risk) = T (threat) x V (vulnerability) x C (consequence). This formula has been transformed and updated throughout the years in order to address the ever-changing landscape of homeland security. Yet, even in its current form, many feel it has an inherent difficulty in that it implies a strict mathematical function can be taken to address the many hazards our country faces; wherein numeric representations of threat, vulnerability and consequences are simply multiplied with one another. No such function exists; but the formula does serve a very useful purpose in displaying the concept that risk is a composite element of various components and factors that must be considered both independently and collectively. Therefore, by combining this formula and the definition noted earlier, we see that risk is determined by the likelihood that a threat (or hazard) will occur, and by the impact that threat will have on a community. In addition, impact (also defined as consequences) is directly impacted by a community's vulnerability to that threat; where areas of weakness are in turn determined by a community's ability to protect itself against the threat, respond to it when necessary, as well as recovering from such an incident in both an effective, expedient, and efficient manner.
When looking at risk from the perspective of a specific geographic location (town, municipality, county, state, nation), risk is simply a composite of all of the threats, vulnerabilities and capabilities that are found in that location (hereto noted as community). Therefore, an appropriate point in which to start is by determining what the community's threat or hazards are. This is where the phrase "all-hazards" comes into play and has a bearing on this overall discussion. To many, homeland security is concerned with terrorism; nothing more, nothing less. Although preventing terrorism and responding to such activities when they do occur is the primary mission of DHS, this Federal entity and the overall the overall homeland security enterprise is concerned with maintaining security related to a myriad of threats and hazards. The Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Comprehensive Preparedness Guide 201 (DHS, 2013) highlights three different categories of threats and hazards:
• Natural: All disaster events occurring as a result of an act of nature. Examples are hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, pandemic events, and severe hot or cold weather.
• Technological: All disaster events occurring as a result of an act of man, with the exception of acts of violence. Examples are industrial accidents, plane or train accidents, as well as transportation-related releases of harmful material (such as an 18-wheeler overturning on an interstate and releasing hazardous materials).
• Man-made: All disaster events occurring as a result of violent human action. These include acts of terrorism and active shooter events.
While these categories are generally self-inclusive, there is room for overlap. For example, wildfires, depending upon their cause, can fall within any of these three categories. They occur in nature as a result of lightning strikes; they can occur through a human or mechanical caused accident (technological), and they can occur as a result of intended human actions. Yet, regardless of the type or cause of the disaster event, the all hazards approach to risk management has the field of homeland security working towards either preventing them from occurring, taking adequate protective measures, decreasing their impact through mitigation-related actions, or responding and recovery from them as needed.
As noted earlier, the first step in determining a community's risk is to determine those specific hazards or threats a community faces (DHS, 2013). Whether we are discussing a particular level of government, a government agency, or a private corporation, the methodology is the same. However, since the vast majority of critical incidents occur at and remain at the local level, the approach taken focus will be seen through the lens of a city or county. Some different courses of action must be carried out in order to obtain the information needed to determine the probability of a disaster occurring (DHS, 2013). One is where a historical analysis is to be performed on those natural disasters that have directly affected the municipality for as far back as can be accurately determined. A hundred years is desirable; less may have to be settled for. Information gathered will include both frequency and seasonal timing of events, geographic location, costs to the community in terms of lives, injuries, property damage, etc., as well as loss of public sector revenue and private sector profit. Another tactic that must be taken is for information to be gathered on industrial related hazards that can impact the community. Local industry must be considered related to products, by-products, and manufacturing processes that may result in an explosion or accidental release of hazardous materials into the air, ground, or water. Local power generating facilities will be considered in an identical manner, as will transportation. Here, local or traversing (passing through) road, rail and waterway traffic can present numerous possibilities related to accidental explosions and releases of hazardous material. Additionally, since disasters are no respecters of artificial political boundaries, neighboring communities must be considered for the same types of hazards. For example, a chlorine spill from an overturned tanker in one county may result in a hazardous airborne material entering and affecting a neighboring county. Likewise, an accidental release of hazardous material into a river may negatively affect all communities downstream from it.
Not surprisingly, intentional, human-caused incidents are the most difficult to predict. Historical data is incomplete at best, and there are no hard facilities or traffic patterns that can be analyzed to help with the determination of the probability of these ever increasing incidents. Recent headlines speak to the fact that active shooter or domestic terrorism events can occur in any community or in any organization's facilities. Likewise, civil unrest can and does occur in many communities across our nation. Also, the cyber environment is ripe for malicious attacks that can be carried out from anywhere around the globe with only a keystroke. Now, whether a given community decides to elevate the probability of such events from "low" to high" may be a combination of social, economic, and political circumstances unique to that community. Also, this determination is a fluid one, as the probability of these types of events continues to increase. At one time, certain locales have felt quite insulated from such violence; yet unfortunately, they or their neighboring communities have now become e yet another statistic. Therefore, all communities must consider those facilities, public gathering points, or items of infrastructure most prone to terrorist or criminal intent as none can totally dismiss this possibility (DHS, 2013).
Following the determination of what threats and hazards are possible within a community and the probability of each, one must then look at the impact of each proposed event and consider what the consequences might be to a community should such an event occur (DHS, 2013). Here, a far-ranging and long-term perspective must be taken. This is because in addition to a host of immediate impacts, one must consider the cascading events that will come as a result of it and their associated costs (financial and otherwise). Every community is different; each has its own unique social, economic and political characteristics, but there are some areas that are somewhat generic to all.
• Life (immediate and lingering death), injury and general health.
• Economic: This in and of itself is a complex matter. We have the cost of public sector rebuilding, the costs to individual citizens, the costs to businesses, the loss of tax revenue, the loss of profit for businesses.
• Environmental: From sewer overflows, to possible long and short term contamination from chemical releases from factories and mines, to the bio hazards of thousands of small animals killed in flooding ...
• Infrastructure, including utilities: The re-building of roads, bridges, railways, port and airport facilities; the cost of rebuilding and the additional economic and social effects of being denied access to aspects of infrastructure required in everyday living
• Temporary loss of educational systems
• Loss of government services: These can be devastating to some special needs populations
• Social and psychological effects
• Loss of tourism for those communities where this is a strong economic factor (DHS, 2013)
At this point, having identified hazards that are likely, the probability of each hazard occurring, and the impact of each hazardous event, we arrive at the final determination of consequence by factoring in the community's ability to cope with the proposed event. This ability to cope is generally couched in the term, ‘capability' (DHS, 2013). For example, if two very similar communities have a large fire at an elementary school and one community has a robust fire department capable of responding within minutes, while the other community has disbanded its full time fire department due to budget cuts and now relies on volunteer fire services, which while competent, takes longer to respond and has fewer assets, the consequences of the fire on the first community would be projected to be less than to the second community. Another example would be the enormous impact a natural disaster could have on a particular area, such as Hurricane Sandy had on the coasts of Maryland, New Jersey and New York. Hurricane Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane (the smallest hurricane). In Florida, a state where hurricanes are common events, and a state where mitigation measures to lessen the impact of hurricanes have long been practiced, Category 1 hurricanes seldom result in more than minor consequences. The consequences of the same size hurricane in states where mitigation measures have not been enacted or not routinely practiced are significantly higher and have a greater detrimental impact on life safety, property damage, and the resulting effects such as the economy. The difference has a direct correlation with the capabilities of the affected jurisdiction. So in our example, Florida has developed the capability of lessening the impact of hurricanes, so its risk to such events is less than the New England area, even though it is exposed to such events on a more regular basis.
Therefore, risk is the consideration regarding the probability of a threat or hazard occurring, combined with consideration of the vulnerabilities a community has to such threats or hazards, combined with the capabilities the community has developed to lessen the consequences, or impact, of that critical incident. As we progress through this course, you will see this concept developed along various avenues of inquiry. We will look at it from the perspective of the national, state, and local levels. We will also consider these issues from the vantage point of private businesses, as well as from the aspect of the public sector that struggles to maintain government services in the wake of these events. Throughout all of these, an all-hazards approach will be taken. As it relates to our nation's homeland security approach, there is no overriding emphasis on any particular threat or hazard to the detriment of what is needed to adequately prepare and respond to other hazards. All of them, from earthquakes to industrial accidents to acts of terrorism are included in the all-hazards approach that is necessary to secure the entire homeland and adequately protect its citizens.
References
Department of Homeland Security (2011). National preparedness system. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Department of Homeland Security (2013). Threat and hazard identification and risk assessment, comprehensive preparedness guide, 2nd edition. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Department of Homeland Security (2014). 2014 Quadrennial homeland security review. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.