ASSIGNMENT: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT 3F
SECTION A -
QUESTION 1: Read the case below in conjunction with the data and answer the questions that follow.
The Sunrise Banking Company markets doughnuts through a chain of food stores. It has been experiencing over-and underproduction because of forecasting errors. The following data are its demand in dozens of doughnuts for the past four weeks. Doughnuts are made for the following day; for example; Sunday's doughnut production is for Monday's sales, Monday's production is for Tuesday's sales, and so forth. The bakery is closed Saturday, so Friday's production must satisfy demand for both Saturday and Sunday.
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4 Weeks Ago
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3 Weeks Ago
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2 Weeks Ago
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Last Week
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Monday
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2200
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2400
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2300
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2400
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Tuesday
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2000
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2100
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2200
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2200
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Wednesday
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2300
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2400
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2300
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2500
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Thursday
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1800
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1900
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1800
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2000
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Friday
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1900
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1800
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2100
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2000
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Saturday
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Closed on Saturday
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|
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Sunday
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2800
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2700
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3000
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2900
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As an experienced supply chain planner, you are required to make use of the above data and provide valuable input to Sunrise Baking Company.
1. Develop a daily forecast for this week using a simple four-week moving average.
2. Develop a daily forecast using a weighted moving average with weights 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10 (most recent to oldest week).
3. Sunrise is also planning its purchases of ingredients for bread production. If breed demand has been forecast for last week at 22,000 loaves and only 21,000 loaves were actually demanded, what would be Sunrise's forecast for this week using exponential smoothing with α = 0.10?
4. Suppose, with the forecast made in 3 above, this week's demand actually turns out to be 22,500. What would the new forecast be for next week?
5. Comment on the suitability of exponential smoothing as a forecasting tool for the environment in which Sunrise Banking Company operates.
SECTION B -
QUESTION 2:
1. Explain how a locational break-even analysis is used to make decisions.
2. What are the different costs affected by location decisions?
QUESTION 3: OPC Engineering is a growing company based in Cape Town. Recently listed on the JSE, the company executives have decided to embark on an internationalisation strategy with the hope of expanding the footprint of the organisation. As a supply chain consultant, you have been appointed to lead the process of expansion.
1. How would you develop a framework strategy for internationalisation for the company? Hint: Use a diagram to explain your answer.
2. Advise management of OPC Engineering on how to develop key competencies in an international environment.
QUESTION 4:
1. Provide an overview of the qualitative methods which can be used in forecasting.
2. Differentiate between weighted averages and exponential smoothing and comment on the accuracy of each of these methods.