Evaluate the mad-mape and mse in holt model

Question

Assignment:

Monthly demand at A&D electronics for flat screen TVs are as follows:

Month	Demand (units)
1	9,000
2	12,000
3	21,000
4	33,000
5	12,000
6	16,000
7	20,000
8	35,000
9	14,000
10	15,000
11	30,000
12	40,000

Estimate demand for the next two weeks (13 - what do you suggest as forecast in week 14) using simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment (Holt's Model) with a = 0.1 and b = 0.2.

For the simple exponential model use the level 20000. (see table below)

Month	Demand (units)	Forecast
1	9,000	20000
2	12,000
3	21,000
4	33,000
5	12,000
6	16,000
7	20,000
8	35,000
9	14,000
10	15,000
11	30,000
12	40,000

For Holt's model, use level at period 1 to be L= 11000 and the trend in period 1 to be T1=1400. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE and MSE in each case. Which of the two methods you prefer and why?

Please use this table for Holt's model

Month	Demand (units)	Forecast	Trend
1	9,000	11000	1400
2	12,000
3	21,000
4	33,000
5	12,000
6	16,000
7	20,000
8	35,000
9	14,000
10	15,000
11	30,000
12	40,000