A large, international bank has a trading book whose size depends on the opportunities perceived by its traders. The market risk manager estimates the one-day VAR, at the 95% confidence level, to be USD 50 million. You are asked to evaluate how good of a job the manager is doing in estimating the one-day VAR. Which of the following would be the most convincing evidence that the manager is doing a poor job, assuming that losses are identically independently distributed?
A. Over the last 250 days, there are eight exceedences.
B. Over the last 250 days, the largest loss is USD 500 million.
C. Over the last 250 days, the mean loss is USD 60 million.
D. Over the last 250 days, there is no exceedence.