Forecasting:
For Problems 1-3 consider the following data:
|
Period
|
Demand
|
|
10
|
248
|
|
11
|
430
|
|
12
|
324
|
|
13
|
263
|
|
14
|
555
|
1) Develop a 3 period moving average forecast for periods 13-15
2) Develop two period weighted moving average model for periods 12-15. Use weights of 0.7 and 0.3, with the most recent observation weighted the highest
3) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (SD=0.25) for Periods 11-15. Assume the forecast for period 10 was 294
4) Consider the forecasts shown below. Calculate MAD and MFE using the data for months January through June. Does the model over or under forecast? Comment on the importance of this.
|
Month
|
Actual Demand
|
Forecast
|
Forecast Error
|
Absolute Forecast Error
|
|
Jan
|
1040
|
1055
|
-15
|
15
|
|
Feb
|
990
|
1052
|
-62
|
62
|
|
Mar
|
980
|
900
|
80
|
80
|
|
Apr
|
1060
|
1025
|
35
|
35
|
|
May
|
1080
|
1100
|
-20
|
20
|
|
Jun
|
1000
|
1050
|
-50
|
50
|
|
Totals
|
|
|
|
|