Determine the probability of next year production


Discussion:

Q1. Assume that each energy type is produced by a process that is normally distributed and calculate the population mean and SD from the entire data set (1980 -2005).

Q2. Determine the probability that next year's production will exceed production in 1990 for each type.

Year Coal 2 Natural Gas 3 Crude Oil 4 Nuclear Electric Power Renewable
Energy 5
Total Energy Production
1980 0.0 70.6 248.7 182.6 90.0 592.0
1981 0.0 56.4 201.7 159.4 83.7 501.1
1982 0.0 41.5 148.6 213.9 105.5 509.6
1983 0.0 35.6 113.0 161.4 94.6 404.6
1984 0.0 23.7 83.9 261.1 112.8 481.5
1985 0.0 20.1 66.5 249.2 114.6 450.3
1986 0.0 16.5 54.4 233.1 118.9 423.0
1987 0.0 15.2 48.0 196.0 108.8 368.0
1988 0.0 14.0 44.9 277.8 114.5 451.1
1989 0.0 13.9 42.3 221.4 233.6 511.1
1990 0.0 11.7 32.9 230.5 200.2 475.3
1991 0.0 8.4 27.4 215.0 214.4 465.2
1992 0.0 11.3 31.5 263.0 232.3 538.0
1993 0.0 11.7 32.5 271.9 218.3 534.4
1994 0.0 10.8 35.3 278.9 216.9 541.9
1995 0.0 9.3 33.0 302.0 221.5 565.8
1996 0.0 8.9 36.5 267.5 241.6 554.4
1997 0.0 8.8 37.0 241.0 232.8 519.6
1998 0.0 8.4 34.6 326.4 207.1 576.6
1999 0.0 8.6 28.4 329.5 206.1 572.6
2000 0.0 9.0 26.8 336.8 197.2 569.8
2001 0.0 7.9 25.7 330.0 160.7 524.2
2002 0.0 4.9 21.2 351.8 177.3 555.3
2003 0.0 4.6 18.9 322.8 191.9 538.2
2004 0.0 4.4 16.7 325.5 183.5 530.0
2005 0.0 3.7 15.0 300.1 192.7 511.4

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Basic Statistics: Determine the probability of next year production
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